Last week I analyzed my bike results from the Wildflower Olympic-distance triathlon. This post analyzes the entire race results, with an eye toward improving my weak points for future races.
This chart sums up the results.
Since I'm nowhere close to competing for a podium position in a race of this size, I'm most concerned with my percentage of the winners' speeds. This is a very useful tool to track performance through a season, and from year to year. See this post for more details. The 81% is faster than the 79% I did at last year's very competitive Boulder Peak Olympic-distance, but worse than the 85% at this year's Super Seal race in San Diego (which is not nearly as competitive, however). In short, I'm happy with my time.
Of course, I'm happiest with my bike split--the top 9% of the field and 89% of the fastest person's bike split. If you pick only one sport in which to do well, making that choice the bike will most help your overall time (almost half of the overall time is comprised of the bike leg).
On the other end of the spectrum, we can see just how terrible my swim time was. Two-thirds of the field beat me, and my speed was only 59% of that of the winners. Note that even such a dreadful performance only cost me 13 minutes--while a top bike split still cost me over 8 minutes. It's a good illustration of why swimming is the least important leg for non-elite age groupers.
My run was in the top third of the field, with my time over 14 minutes behind the winners. My speed, 73% of the winners, was a good bit slower than than 82% I raced in the spring's Super Seal race.
Leg by Leg
The Dreadful Swim. First question: What went wrong on the swim? I'm normally in the top 40-50% of the swim field, and had expected to finish this in under 30 minutes. What happened is that I took a very wide turn around the first buoy when trying to avoid the traffic jam that always happens there. Somehow I took it far wider than I wanted. Instead of just getting back into line and following the intermediate marker buoys, I chose to sight off of the second turn buoy, which was 400-500 meters away.
This was a mistake, and I ended up zig-zagging all over the place. This easily cost me 2-3 minutes. The funny thing is that I've made this mistake before during a race, with the same adjustment tactic, and the same dreadful outcome. Maybe next time I'll learn...
T1. My friend Matt and I have a friendly competition regarding transition times. He doesn't wear socks, and can mount his bike with the shoes already attached to the pedals. I scoff at the notion for age groupers (having seen more than one person fall over at the mounting line trying to get into their shoes). His T1 time was 11 seconds faster than mine. Which is the amount of time it takes to put on socks and bike shoes in transition.
I'm Very Happy With My Bike Split. See the prior post for a detailed description. If only the other legs came so easily...
T2. Not a great transition, but not as important as the first one in a race where everyone has to shed wetsuits and times are all over 2-3 minutes. Don't laugh about trying to ace transition times. They really are "free" time. Consider than 1 minute saved in transition is equivalent to running 10 seconds per mile faster on a 10k course. And I know how much effort it takes to knock that off a run split... BTW, Matt beat me in T2 by 7 seconds, which is the time it takes to take off bike shoes in transition (me), versus taking them off while still on the bike.
The Run. This is always the make-or-break part of the race for me. If I'm feeling good and passing lots of people, it boosts my mood and I go even faster. If I'm not feeling good and am getting passed, I struggle and mentally suffer. Which always makes me slow down.
I had expected the first 3 miles to be basically flat--which would have been great for me, because it takes me a couple of miles to really get my running legs. Instead, it was a continuous series of short, steep hills (up and down). While at the end of those 3 miles we hadn't gained any actual elevation, it felt like we were never on flat ground.
I struggled during that time, and started to lose confidence and worry that I wouldn't have enough left for the 2-mile long hill starting at mile 3 that was the crux of the run. I even walked through the aid station at mile 3 to make sure I got enough water and gatorade. Only in hindsight though did I notice that not many people were passing me--although I wasn't passing very many myself.
My strategy had been to go flat out on the 2-mile hill, as the last mile of the race was a very steep downhill. So, aerobically, I planned to arrive at the top completely spent. But I didn't. I held back. It was only at 1/4 mile from the top that I realized I had tons of ooomph left, but it was much too late for a surge to amount to much.
This is the part of the race over which I'm most frustrated; not putting it all on the table. In reality it would have only saved me 2-3 minutes--but I would have felt much better about my effort.
Goals for Next Year
If only my swim and run were as good as my bike. My bike split was 89% of the winners' time. Let's look at how fast I'd need to swim and run to be at 89% of the winners' times in those two legs.
For my overall time to be 89% of the winners' times, I'd need to knock 16 minutes off my time. That would put me in 14th place, or the top 7%. But to get there? A swim at 89% of the winners' speeds would be a 21:45--almost 12 minutes faster than this year's time! And an equivalent run would need to be almost 10 minutes faster, or 1:25/mile! Neither of those are realistic for me to reach in a year's time.
So what's realistic for me? I currently swim a pool mile in about 30 minutes. It's reasonable to think that with a lot of time in a master's class (something I don't do now) and more practice sighting, I could do a 1500m race in 27:30.
And regarding the run. With such a hilly course, other racers seemed to think their times were 30-45 seconds/mile slower than on a flat course. My 8:40 pace at Wildflower might translate to an 8:00-8:15/mile pace on a flat course. Which is 15-30 seconds/mile slower than what I'd expect to do. So maybe I did leave too much on the bike course.
I think it's realistic for me to run a 7:45/mi pace at Wildflower next year. That would mean I'd need to be running a flat Olympic-distance race at a 7:00 to 7:15/mile pace. This spring at Super Seal I held a 7:50 pace, and in sprint-distance races I've been holding a 7:00 - 7:15 pace over 4 miles. So I need to knock 30-45 seconds off my training splits at tempo and zone 4 paces. Ambitious, but not unreasonable. Running is very new to me, and I seem to be me making great improvements every year. So I'll hold this up as my big goal.
All of that (and keeping my bike split the same) would get me down to a 2:39 overall finish, which would probably be in the top 10% of the field, and a time I'd be very proud of.
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